S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.0% annual gain in February, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, down from 3.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.0% year-over-year gain, down from 3.5% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Las Vegas led the way with a 9.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 6.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.4% increase. Only one of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending February 2019 versus the year ending January 2019. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2% in February. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.2% increases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in February. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites both posted 0.2% month-over-month increases. In February, 14 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

"The pace of increases for home prices continues to slow," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Homes began their climb in 2012 and accelerated until late 2013 when annual increases reached double digits. Subsequently, increases slowed until now when the National Index is up 4% in the last 12 months. Sales of existing single family homes have recovered since 2010 and reached their peak one year ago in February 2018. Home sales drifted down over the last year except for a one-month pop in February 2019. Sales of new homes, housing starts, and residential investment had similar weak trajectories over the last year. Mortgage rates are down one-half to three-quarters of a percentage point since late 2018.

"The largest year-over-year price increase is 9.7% in Las Vegas; last year, the largest gain was 12.7% in Seattle. Regional patterns are shifting. The three California cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego have the three slowest price increases over the last year. Chicago, New York and Cleveland saw only slightly larger prices increases than California. Prices generally rose faster in inland cities than on either the coasts or the Great Lakes. Aside from Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa, which saw the fastest gains, Atlanta, Denver, and Minneapolis all saw prices rise more than 4% -- twice the rate of inflation."

SUPPORTING DATA 

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.