September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index Up 6.2% In Last 12 Months

Staff Report

Wednesday, November 29th, 2017

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in September, up from 5.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.7%, up from 5.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.2% year-over-year gain, up from 5.8% the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In September, Seattle led the way with a 12.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 9.0% increase, and San Diego with an 8.2% increase. 13 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending September 2017 versus the year ending August 2017. 

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for Seattle and Las Vegas.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in September. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in September. The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted 0.6% and 0.5% month-over-month increases, respectively. 15 of 20 cities reported increases in September before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

"Home prices continued to rise across the country with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index rising at the fastest annual rate since June 2014," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Home prices were higher in all 20 cities tracked by these indices compared to a year earlier; 16 cities saw annual price increases accelerate from last month. Strength continues to be concentrated in the west with Seattle, Las Vegas, San Diego and Portland seeing the largest gains. The smallest increases were in Atlanta, New York, Miami, Chicago and Washington. Eight cities have surpassed their pre-financial crisis peaks."

"Most economic indicators suggest that home prices can see further gains. Rental rates and home prices are climbing, the rent-to-buy ratio remains stable, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage is still under 4%, and at a 3.8-month supply, the inventory of homes for sale is still low. The overall economy is growing with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, inflation at 2% and wages rising at 3% or more. One dark cloud for housing is affordability – rising prices mean that some people will be squeezed out of the market."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

 

2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

 

Index

 

Level

 

Date

 

Level

 

Date

From
Peak (%)

 

Level

From
Trough (%)

From
Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

195.51

45.9%

5.9%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

203.50

51.8%

-1.5%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

217.27

48.4%

-4.0%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for September 2017. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

 

September 2017

September/August

August/July

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

140.12

0.2%

0.3%

5.4%

Boston

206.04

0.4%

0.4%

7.2%

Charlotte

150.98

0.3%

0.5%

6.2%

Chicago

141.41

0.0%

0.3%

3.9%

Cleveland

118.54

0.7%

0.7%

5.4%

Dallas

179.73

0.4%

0.3%

7.1%

Denver

202.14

0.2%

0.3%

7.2%

Detroit

117.65

-0.1%

0.6%

6.9%

Las Vegas

166.88

1.0%

1.0%

9.0%

Los Angeles

268.05

0.4%

0.3%

6.2%

Miami

228.03

0.6%

0.1%

5.0%

Minneapolis

163.78

0.0%

0.3%

5.4%

New York

195.04

0.9%

0.8%

5.2%

Phoenix

173.15

0.6%

0.8%

6.1%

Portland

223.62

0.2%

0.1%

7.3%

San Diego

246.66

0.5%

0.8%

8.2%

San Francisco

244.64

0.5%

-0.1%

7.0%

Seattle

230.93

-0.3%

0.2%

12.9%

Tampa

199.37

0.9%

0.4%

7.2%

Washington

222.22

-0.2%

-0.1%

3.1%

Composite-10

217.27

0.5%

0.4%

5.7%

Composite-20

203.50

0.4%

0.4%

6.2%

U.S. National

195.51

0.4%

0.5%

6.2%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

   

Data through September 2017

     

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

 

September/August Change (%)

August/July Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.2%

1.3%

0.3%

-0.3%

Boston

0.4%

0.8%

0.4%

0.5%

Charlotte

0.3%

0.6%

0.5%

0.7%

Chicago

0.0%

0.5%

0.3%

0.2%

Cleveland

0.7%

0.9%

0.7%

0.8%

Dallas

0.4%

0.9%

0.3%

0.3%

Denver

0.2%

0.6%

0.3%

0.5%

Detroit

-0.1%

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

Las Vegas

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

Los Angeles

0.4%

0.7%

0.3%

0.5%

Miami

0.6%

0.5%

0.1%

0.4%

Minneapolis

0.0%

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

New York

0.9%

0.9%

0.8%

0.4%

Phoenix

0.6%

0.8%

0.8%

0.7%

Portland

0.2%

0.5%

0.1%

0.2%

San Diego

0.5%

0.7%

0.8%

1.0%

San Francisco

0.5%

1.1%

-0.1%

0.6%

Seattle

-0.3%

0.5%

0.2%

0.6%

Tampa

0.9%

1.0%

0.4%

0.5%

Washington

-0.2%

0.3%

-0.1%

0.1%

Composite-10

0.5%

0.6%

0.4%

0.5%

Composite-20

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

U.S. National

0.4%

0.7%

0.5%

0.7%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

   

Data through September 2017