Auto Sales Expected to Dip in April, Edmunds Forecasts

Staff Report

Friday, April 27th, 2018

Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,335,313 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in April for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.9 million. This reflects a 19 percent decrease in sales from March 2018 and a 6 percent decrease from April 2017. Analysts note that there were 24 selling days in April this year, compared to 26 last year.

"April's sales slip may seem disheartening, but the spike we saw in March was an anomaly considering our expectations for 2018," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "Overall, we expect April will still be a solid month and more of a true indicator of where sales are trending for the year as demand declines and interest rates continue to rise. Sales are still in a very healthy place, and we're seeing encouraging signs that automakers are continuing to improve their product mixes and inventory levels to match consumer demand."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

 

Sales
Volume

April 2018
Forecast

April
2017

March
2018

Change from
April 2017

Change from March
2018

           

GM

237,464

244,406

296,341

-2.8%

-19.9%

Ford

203,373

213,436

243,021

-4.7%

-16.3%

Toyota

187,466

201,926

222,782

-7.2%

-15.9%

Fiat Chrysler

169,706

176,176

216,063

-3.7%

-21.5%

Honda

126,923

138,386

142,392

-8.3%

-10.9%

Nissan

109,049

121,998

162,535

-10.6%

-32.9%

Hyundai/Kia

101,446

116,408

112,185

-12.9%

-9.6%

VW/Audi

43,821

46,268

52,638

-5.3%

-16.8%

Industry

1,335,313

1,420,602

1,648,239

-6.0%

-19.0%

*NOTE: April 2018 had 24 selling days, April 2017 had 26 and March 2018 had 28.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.5 million vehicles in April 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 20.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.5 million used vehicles will be sold in April 2018, for a SAAR of 39.2 million (compared to 3.7 million — or a SAAR of 39.2 million — in March).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

 

Market
Share

April 2018
Forecast

April
2017

March
2018

Change from
April 2017

Change from March
2018

           

GM

17.8%

17.2%

18.0%

0.6%

-0.2%

Ford

15.2%

15.0%

14.7%

0.2%

0.5%

Toyota

14.0%

14.2%

13.5%

-0.2%

0.5%

Fiat Chrysler

12.7%

12.4%

13.1%

0.3%

-0.4%

Honda

9.5%

9.7%

8.6%

-0.2%

0.9%

Nissan

8.2%

8.6%

9.9%

-0.4%

-1.7%

Hyundai/Kia

7.6%

8.2%

6.8%

-0.6%

0.8%

VW/Audi

3.3%

3.3%

3.2%

0.0%

0.1%