New Vehicle Sales Expected to Lift Slightly in the Third Quarter, Edmunds Forecasts

Staff Report

Friday, September 27th, 2019

Thanks to two fewer selling days and an early Labor Day holiday, the car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast September will be a down month for the auto industry, forecasting that 1,267,607 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.1 million. This reflects a 23% decrease in sales from August 2019 and an 11.6% decrease from September 2018.

"September auto sales look a little bleak on paper, but it's just a matter of a tough year-over-year comparison," explained Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' senior manager of industry analysis. "This is one of those times when you have to look at the full quarter to get a more accurate perspective of what's really happening in the market."

Edmunds experts forecast that 4,317,448 new cars and trucks will be sold in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 3.1% decrease from the second quarter of 2019, but a 0.8% increase from the third quarter of 2018. This would mark the first quarter this year that auto sales will be up on a quarterly basis compared to 2018.

"All year long we've been talking about high prices and rising interest rates keeping shoppers on the sidelines, but in the third quarter those pressures eased up just enough to get consumers back in a buying mood," Acevedo said. "If this momentum continues, we expect a solid finish to the year."

SEPTEMBER SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales
Volume

September
2019 Forecast

September
2018

August
2019

Change from
September 2018

Change from
August 2019

GM*

223,746

236,000

290,000

-5.2%

-22.8%

Toyota

180,595

203,098

248,334

-11.1%

-27.3%

Fiat
Chrysler*

174,302

199,819

214,000

-12.8%

-18.6%

Ford*

170,179

196,496

209,000

-13.4%

-18.6%

Honda

120,274

132,668

173,993

-9.3%

-30.9%

Hyundai/Kia

98,654

108,862

123,994

-9.4%

-20.4%

Nissan

98,299

122,819

127,230

-20.0%

-22.7%

VW/Audi

42,334

49,874

56,943

-15.1%

-25.7%

Tesla

13,762

-

-

-

-

Industry

1,267,607

1,433,664

1,646,395

-11.6%

-23.0%

 

*GM sales totals for September 2018 are estimated, FCA, Ford, and GM sales totals for August 2019 are estimated

**NOTE: September 2019 had 23 selling days, September 2018 had 25 and August 2019 had 23.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.7 million vehicles in September 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.8% of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in September 2019, for a SAAR of 39.7 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 39.8 million — in August).

SEPTEMBER MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share

September
2019 Forecast

September
2018

August
2019

Change from
September 2018

Change from
August 2019

GM

17.7%

16.5%

17.6%

1.2%

0.1%

Toyota

14.2%

14.2%

15.1%

0.1%

-0.8%

Fiat
Chrysler

13.8%

13.9%

13.0%

-0.2%

0.8%

Ford

13.4%

13.7%

12.8%

-0.3%

0.7%

Honda

9.5%

9.3%

10.6%

0.2%

-1.1%

Hyundai/Kia

7.8%

7.6%

7.5%

0.2%

0.3%

Nissan

7.8%

8.6%

7.7%

-0.8%

0.0%

VW/Audi

3.3%

3.5%

3.5%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Tesla

1.1%

-

-

-

-

Q3 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales
Volume

Q3 2019
Forecast

Q3 2018

Q2 2019

Change from Q3
2018

Change from Q2
2019

GM

748,746

694,638

746,659

7.8%

0.3%

Toyota

638,133

634,923

607,927

0.5%

5.0%

Fiat
Chrysler

558,302

564,507

597,685

-1.1%

-6.6%

Ford

570,179

606,939

643,000

-6.1%

-11.3%

Honda

435,563

419,173

407,208

3.9%

7.0%

Hyundai/Kia

335,359

325,132

359,796

3.1%

-6.8%

Nissan

324,409

343,987

351,185

-5.7%

-7.6%

VW/Audi

149,835

152,777

152,061

-1.9%

-1.5%

Industry

4,317,448

4,284,576

4,454,299

0.8%

-3.1%

Q3 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share

Q3 2019
Forecast

Q3 2018

Q2 2019

Change from Q3
2018

Change from Q2
2019

GM

17.3%

16.2%

16.8%

1.1%

0.6%

Toyota

14.8%

14.8%

13.6%

0.0%

1.1%

Fiat
Chrysler

12.9%

13.2%

13.4%

-0.2%

-0.5%

Ford

13.2%

14.2%

14.4%

-1.0%

-1.2%

Honda

10.1%

9.8%

9.1%

0.3%

0.9%

Hyundai/Kia

7.8%

7.6%

8.1%

0.2%

-0.3%

Nissan

7.5%

8.0%

7.9%

-0.5%

-0.4%

VW/Audi

3.5%

3.6%

3.4%

-0.1%

0.1%