Memorial Day Weekend Sales Expected to Prop Up New Vehicle Sales in May, Edmunds Forecasts

Staff Report

Friday, May 29th, 2020

The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that generous financing offers and incentives during Memorial Day weekend helped give the auto industry a much-needed boost in May, forecasting that 1,074,542 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 11.8 million. This reflects a 32.5% decrease in sales from May 2019, but a 50.5% increase from April 2020.

"We can safely say that April was the bottom for auto sales during the coronavirus pandemic," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "There's still a long road to recovery ahead, but May auto sales are a really encouraging sign for the industry. The unprecedented deals broadcast by automakers and dealers really did the trick in getting more consumers to reenter the market, social distancing and all."

Edmunds experts note that automakers have already begun to dial back some of the more generous financing incentives made available at the start of the crisis; consumer demand continues to grow and inventory could begin to dwindle as auto manufacturers work on getting their factories safely and consistently up and running.

"The best car shopping deals of the summer are happening right now and they're not going to last," said Caldwell. "If you're in the market for a new car, now is the time to pull the trigger. Once automakers start to pump the brakes on their incentive spending, many cash-strapped Americans will be left in the lurch."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

SALES
VOLUME

2020 May
Forecast

May
2019

April
2020

Change from
May 2019

Change from
April 2020

GM

186,325

260,618

138,420

-28.5%

34.6%

Ford

158,088

233,560

120,044

-32.3%

31.7%

Toyota

152,336

222,174

84,694

-31.4%

79.9%

FCA

141,506

218,702

91,749

-35.3%

54.2%

Honda

101,203

145,532

57,751

-30.5%

75.2%

Hyundai/Kia

97,581

128,496

66,479

-24.1%

46.8%

Nissan

71,065

131,983

46,287

-46.2%

53.5%

VW/Audi

32,008

54,594

25,678

-41.4%

24.7%

Industry

1,074,542

1,591,116

713,962

-32.5%

50.5%

*NOTE: May 2020 had 26 selling days, May 2019 had 26 and April 2020 had 26.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 10.2 million vehicles in May 2020, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.5% of total sales.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share

2020 May
Forecast

May
2019

April
2020

Change from
May 2019

Change from
April 2020

GM

17.3%

16.4%

19.4%

5.9%

-10.6%

Ford

14.7%

14.7%

16.8%

0.2%

-12.5%

Toyota

14.2%

14.0%

11.9%

1.5%

19.5%

FCA

13.2%

13.7%

12.9%

-4.2%

2.5%

Honda

9.4%

9.1%

8.1%

3.0%

16.4%

Hyundai/Kia

9.1%

8.1%

9.3%

12.4%

-2.5%

Nissan

6.6%

8.3%

6.5%

-20.3%

2.0%

VW/Audi

3.0%

3.4%

3.6%

-13.2%

-17.2%

           

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.