The 15th edition of the EY Future Consumer Index (FCI), a global study surveying 20,000 consumers across 26 countries, including 1,500 in the US, reveals that 73% of US consumers have changed their buying habits after price increases over the past year amid growing economic concerns. While private label products are increasingly recognized as money savers, 55% who try private label switch back to brands, nearly half (48%) of them for better quality, taste or performance.

Decoding consumers changing values. With inflationary pressures continuing to shape buying behavior, consumers aren't just buying labels anymore. US consumers prioritize price and quality over brand familiarity. Established brands can no longer reduce pack size or raise price without facing scrutiny. In the US, shoppers have cited that they are most likely to reduce purchase quantities or opt for smaller sizes in snacks and confectionary (36%), alcoholic beverages (35%), and dining out or ordering takeout (35%). In contrast, they are least likely to do so in fresh food (32%), home and household care (32%), and clothing and footwear (31%). 

As consumers carefully evaluate price, value and pack size, they are also rethinking the role brands play in their lives. This shift is particularly evident across generations, as older and younger consumers shift how and where they are purchasing products. Fifty-six percent of older consumers (Gen X and baby boomers) shop at discount retailers, warehouse clubs or supermarkets, compared with 44% of younger consumers (Gen Z and millennials) in the US.

"Retailers have always dealt with varying degrees of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and supply chain disruptions, but what's different now more than ever is the acute ability to measure their connection with consumers and how these external influences are impacting their day-to-day buying habits," says Mark Chambers, EY Americas Retail Sector Leader. "We've observed the changing expectations of more value-conscious consumers, and retailers need to keep pace by evaluating and leveraging a mix of the tools available to them like pricing strategies, customer intelligence platforms and inventory optimization."

Brands must adapt and demonstrate value. As the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises, the adoption of private label continues to increase, and 76% of US consumers now say private label are helping them save money (+9 percentage points increase compared with September 2023). A clear shift is occurring as consumers prioritize product quality and value over brand names. Seventy-two percent of US consumers believe private-label products satisfy their needs just as much as brands, showing that competition now goes beyond established brands. Of the US consumers making the switch, 63% have observed an increase in price of private label options at their preferred stores. As shoppers look for deals and focus on value, retailers must continually refine price and product packages that balance affordability and bulk options for their customers.

Defending brand loyalty. Despite the increase in private label adoption, 55% of US shoppers are switching back to branded options after trying a private label. Consumers prefer brands for their superior quality, value and reliability. While category leaders can command a price premium due to perceived value, non-leading brands face growing pressure from private labels and niche brands. Seventy-one percent of consumers will choose a different brand if their preferred option is unavailable, 65% would switch for a better price, and 59% are usually open to trying new brands. Fifty-four percent of Gen Z and millennials are more likely to switch to other brands, representing the highest proportion of switchers and making them the most vulnerable segment. Meanwhile, 24% of older generation shoppers in the US are more likely to reject a brand.

To maintain or capture new loyalty in a shifting market, brands must reinforce their value proposition as shoppers seek innovative products that offer tangible value, not just lower prices. In many cases so far, brands have been unsuccessful as 51% of consumers don't feel that brand marketing messages are doing a good job of resonating with their needs and values. In terms of innovation, brands must proceed with caution when adjusting ingredients or formulas, as nearly half (46%) of US consumers remain skeptical of product improvements, often perceiving them as cost-cutting measures.

"Brands that understand the price-value equation for consumers will be able to handle the headwinds they are facing and deliver on growth in the years to come," says Rob Holston, EY Global and America's Consumer Products Sector Leader. "Despite the agility of some brand leaders in adjusting the uncertainty within their existing portfolio, there is an accelerating need to balance inorganic and organic growth to maintain relevance with both capital markets and consumers."