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Only one week remains before the November 4th elections, headlined by a pair of statewide Public Service Commission races.  And while turnout, as predicted in an off-cycle election, is low – a look at the early voting totals can give us an idea of where the candidates stand and what they need to do to get across the line on election day.

PSC Commissioner Tim Echols, who along with fellow Republican Commissioner Fitz Johnson is running for re-election, has been sounding the alarm over low turnout numbers and the need for his party to get out and vote.  While turnout has been low overall, it’s been higher in Democrat-heavy parts of the state, particularly around the city of Atlanta, where a mayoral race and several competitive City Council races have bolstered turnout.  That’s good news for Democrats Alicia Johnson (running against Echols) Peter Hubbard (running against Johnson).

Mike Seigle of Landmark Communication gave an update on voting totals over the weekend.  

As of Saturday, October 25th: 

250020 total votes
39.6% have a recent GOP primary vote history
48.2% have a recent DEM primary vote history
59.4% White
34.4% Black 

Traditionally Georgia Democrats have pointed to the ’30-30′ rule to win statewide races.  That means they need 30% of the White vote and for the Black vote to make up 30% of the overall electorate.  While it’s not a hard and fast rule, seeing the Black vote sitting at 34.4% is a very good sign indeed for Dems.

Another bad sign for Republicans – the ruby red 14th Congressional District in Northwest Georgia, represented by U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, is the lowest-performing congressional district in the state.  Republicans will need to drive turnout in that mountainous corner of Georgia to win next week.

Greene, for her part, urged voters on Monday to make sure they cast their ballots.

And Echols over the weekend shared reason for optimism on his part.

“Democrats in this race got off to a blistering start–way out front, almost 20 percentage points. Their incredible performance drew a $2.2 million injection of cash by Georgia Confiscation Voters (GCV), announced after 3 days of rabbit performance.  
   
I admit it–I was panicking. But then Governor Kemp and many of our elected officials, and GOP chapter leaders and grassroots workers got engaged.  Last Friday, eight days ago, we saw the “rabbit” slowing down.  But we were way back in the race.  Each day since last Friday we have increased our vote share, and Dems have lost vote share.”  

As we’ve seen in recent presidential elections, Republicans tend to outperform Democrats on election day.  If they can close the gap this week (early voting ends on Friday) they’ll have a real chance to eek out a tight win next Tuesday, but as always, turnout will be the key.